If I was a betting man I’d say that the nation is starting to climb out of the current recession. There are a few indicators that the worst is behind us (for now). Carpe Diem has an analysis of the New York Fed report on the economy.
Bottom Line: My reading of the New York Fed’s Treasury spread model suggests that an economic recovery is probably already underway, and the Fed’s model predicts the end of the recession in 2009.
Unfortunately for the United States there’s only one logical conclusion to all the spending going on today in Washington. First if the economy is indeed recovering it has nothing to do with what the government has done since September. In fact everything that the government has done in that time has created a crisis for the future. The last two presidents seem to think that printing trillions of dollars and letting the Chinese pay for it is a sustainable economic solution.
Unless there’s a huge change in fiscal polity the economic judgment day is coming. If the newly submitted budget is any indication our current president isn’t concerned. Why should he be? These kind of fiscal policies sometimes take a decade before everything comes unraveled. They’ll be building the man a monument right next to Lincoln in ten years.
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