I haven’t written very much about the much publicized Tea Party movement, mostly due to the fact that it’s a rather faceless mob. The Republican establishment isn’t fueling it. In fact, the GOP elite look down their nose at the angry mob. The Democrats consider anyone to the right of Tom Harkin a wingnut. It’s not surprising that centrist Democrats are fleeing into the open arms of the GOP. The Tea Party types are really asking for change.
Tea Party Movement
The Tea Partiers are united by what they opposed. What do they oppose? Well, practically everything, but that’s not the entire story. A growing segment of Americans are sick and tired of lying politicians who are absolutely corrupt. They’re fed up with all the spending. New York Times columnist David Brook believes there’s a rift between the educated class and the public. The educated class is a bit broad, but there’s a healthy dose of skepticism about the ideas of the elite.
Why shouldn’t the public be skeptical? The so-called elites are always of full of ideas born in some abstract backwater far removed from reality, but that doesn’t mean that any of them are any good. Free food for the entire population is a great idea. Well, until you try to figure out how to do it or pay for it. The educated class has been great at coming up with ideas we can’t afford. The American middle class has paid for all these forays into Utopia. Here’s Brook’s take on the Tea Party’s future:

The movement is especially popular among independents. The Rasmussen organization asked independent voters whom they would support in a generic election between a Democrat, a Republican and a tea party candidate. The tea party candidate won, with 33 percent of independents. Undecided came in second with 30 percent. The Democrats came in third with 25 percent and the Republicans fourth with 12 percent.
Over the course of this year, the Tea Party movement will probably be transformed. Right now it is an amateurish movement with mediocre leadership. But several bright and polished politicians, like Marco Rubio of Florida and Gary Johnson of New Mexico, are unofficially competing to become its de facto leader. If they succeed, their movement is likely to outgrow its crude beginnings and become a major force in American politics. After all, it represents arguments that are deeply rooted in American history.

There a plenty of political scenarios in play here. I’ll play prognosticator. In the short run (2010) Republicans will benefit from the anti-government fever. The Tea Party will remain rather faceless until we move further into the year. I don’t know who will ultimately rise out of the chaos, but someone will try to attach themselves to the movement. 2012 could be a disaster for the GOP. The Democrats will be united behind Obama. If not, they’ll be united behind whoever the party nominates for election. I doubt the GOP embraces the Tea Party. They’re outsiders and the Republican hierarchy will reject it. The Tea Party could be Ross Perot on steroids. Unless there’s some kind of amazing groundswell of support, I can’t see a third-party candidate winning. Ultimately, a strong Tea Party candidate only siphons votes from the GOP.
In the long run the Tea Party movement could mean the end of the GOP as it exists today. It also (despite widespread ridicule from the left) may represent the only chance at real change being offered in politics. The Democrats are for more of the same. The Republicans are opposed to the status quo but are unwilling to do anything. Perhaps this is the answer of the Progressive Era.