The only thing more annoying than a politician announcing the formation of an exploratory committee is the inevitable announcement they’re running for president. Today Mitt Romney declared his candidacy for presidency. If you’re anything like me you didn’t know he wasn’t already running. He’s been running since he endorsed McCain in 2008.
Romney’s biggest challenge to secure the GOP nomination is RomneyCare. ObamaCare is toxic and Romney’s greatest legislative achievement while he was governor of Massachusetts was a healthcare overhaul suspiciously like ObamaCare, and almost as crappy.
RomneyCare isn’t working and Romney won’t distance himself from it. I’m not sure how Romney runs a successful race with this albatross. The one thing Romney has going for him is that he’s the safe choice. If no other candidate comes forward that captures the imagination of GOP voters Romney suddenly becomes the John Kerry candidate.
Being the next John Kerry isn’t much to get excited about, but if the economy continues to drag on into next year Obama faces a very difficult reelection. If the economy gets worse Obama could be facing an electoral disaster. Simply securing the GOP nomination may be enough to get in the White House. It will be interesting to see if this week’s bad economic data forces some potential candidates to rethink their 2012 strategy.
Mitt Romney is the candidate no one really loves, but the candidate everyone might settle for if there’s no other choice.
So it begins… President Obama is kicking off his bid for reelection. The first priority is to get the grassroots fired up. What is going to be Obama’s campaign theme? His presidency has been a failure by almost any measure. The only thing he’s delivered is ObamaCare and even the few people who still support it admit it has to be reformed. Here’s his grassroots video.
In my lifetime there hasn’t been a President as disorganized or so devoid of leadership. I like President Obama, but the last three years have proven he’s not up for the job. His only hope now is that the business cycle saves his presidency. I’m not sure that will even do it. If the President was serious about the economy he wouldn’t have pushed another new entitlement down our throats. He’s had three years to develop an energy policy and has failed. He’s has three years to reduce wasteful spending and has failed.
What is Obama’s big idea? In 2008, he didn’t have one. His campaign was about “change” or as Club Soda put it in 2008 “nothing.” President Obama might be able to convince enough people that the status quo is enough to get reelected, but that says more about the electorate than it does about the man. It’s been four years of flowery speeches and missed opportunities for the President. He doesn’t deserve more time.
Tim Pawlenty has a YouTube video out for his new book, Courage to Stand. I would have called it Courage to Read because who is going to waste their time to read a book by Tim Pawlenty? The video is beyond parody.
I’m sorry Pawlenty, just give it up. You don’t have what it takes to be President. Hot Air calls the video “the motion picture event of a lifetime.” America is great, we get it. What makes Pawlenty great? Now, that’s a better question. I don’t want to read a book to find out.
There’s no better example of the difference in coverage between Republican and Democratic election wins than how The Economist covered President Obama’s victory and the GOP victory last week. One week before the election The Economist ran a cover that included the headline “Angry America.” It troubles me that a publication like The Economist can get things so wrong.
Many of the players in 2012 are already household names. Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin are embedded in the American consciousness (or is it consciousless?); however, Americans might be longing for an outsider, a fresh face or both of the above. One such person is Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels. There have been a few whispers of a 2012 run for Daniels, but outside the beltway most Americans have no idea who he is.
Daniels fits the presidential mold. He went to school at Princeton and got a law degree from Georgetown. During the Bush administration Daniels served at the Office of Management and Budget and was a member of the Homeland Security Council and National Security Council. He might run as an outsider, but it’s not like he hasn’t had experience in Washington.
As Governor of Indiana Mitch Daniels has shined. In 2008, he was named one of the top eight best public servants. To get an idea of how popular Daniels is in Indiana he won his bid for reelection in 2008 by 18 points. That’s an impressive margin of victory in a Democratic year.
As we all know, a major part of the presidency is communication. Here’s an impromptu speech by Daniels on ObamaCare from last year.
Awesome sweater. Sounds like he fits the part to me. He communicates much better than Tim Pawlenty. Daniels has all the tools to be a successful chief executive, but Republican Party politics are tricky to maneuver. However, there’s really no clear consensus on who the front-runner is for the 2012 nomination. Romney would be a shoe-in but his biggest achievement as governor of Massachusetts is an ObamaCare like bill that he passed. Sarah Palin just doesn’t have enough experience to be president. There is an opening there if someone wants to take it. How seriously does Daniels want the job? We’ll find out in 12 months.
I don’t really know enough about Daniels at this point to get excited. On the other hand, there’s nothing about the current crop of hopefuls that’s very exciting either. After the mid-terms, expect the presidential speculation to start heating up.
Here is what adult leadership is supposed to sound like. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie sounds like he gets it. This sounds like a breath of fresh air compared to what’s coming out of Washington. Is Christie 2012 too soon? Before Obama became President I would have said yes, but basically anyone is qualified for the White House now.
The President is barely one year into his four-year term, so predicting what will happen three years from now is rather pointless. The electoral landscape can change a lot in six months. The U.S. economy is far too large and the productivity of the American worker will eventually push growth. As I’ve stated before my issues with the White House are the long-term implications of the President’s economic strategy.
However, economy aside, if the White House really pushes health care through Congress in a privileged budget reconciliation bill it’s political suicide.
The legislation the White House will post on its website is expected to reflect common ground negotiated over the past several weeks by House and Senate Democratic leaders.
Those agreements are likely to be combined as a privileged budget reconciliation bill, which only needs a simple 51-vote majority to pass the 100-member Senate instead of the 60-vote supermajority that has become routine in the Senate and gives Republicans power to block the healthcare bill.
If this actually happens not only will the Democrats lose the Congress, but Obama’s presidency would be crippled. Even if the economy recovers Americans are concerned about the long-term fiscal situation. Even under the most rosy economic scenario there’s no solution to the nation’s fiscal problems. By any estimate the U.S. cannot afford Obama’s health care plan.
In the end I just don’t think the Democrats can muster the votes to pass this idea. What would they accomplish? Americans are already outraged by this process. Passing the bill through reconciliation would keep up the anti-incumbent sentiment through 2012. Obama doesn’t want his reelection campaign to be about repealing his key accomplishment.
Maybe someday I’ll look back at what I’m about to write and say, “Wow! I was completely wrong about that one!” Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty will never be elected President of the United States. The Governor is currently and foolishly putting a team together to run in 2012, but he shouldn’t bother. Whoever put the story together over at POLITICO couldn’t even bother to find a decent picture of the Governor.
There’s a very superficial angle to presidential politics. Pawlenty looks like a Republican John Kerry to me. He’s the type of guy you nominate when you know there’s not an Atlanta Braves making the playoffs chance of winning. Pawlenty’s problems aren’t his politics. He just lacks charisma. He’s not the type of candidate you get excited about when he speaks, or writes, or generally shows up for anything. His speech at the RNC, for instance, was the miracle cure for insomnia modern medicine has been looking for all these years.
Is this a fair way of determining who should be President? No, but I’m not going to ignore reality. Abraham Lincoln may have been a dull person, but we’ll never really know since there’s no film from those days. The content of his rhetoric, however, was amazing. In those days that was enough. With the advent TV and the 24/7 news cycle charisma counts. President Obama was elected primarily based on his charisma and his race; Pawlenty has neither of these traits going for him.
The 2012 election is still a long way off, but the jockeying is already starting. Republicans do not have a lot of talent on the bench so it’s going to be difficult for a newcomer to come out of nowhere like Obama. Obama benefited from press adoration years before making a run. Abraham Lincoln could be resurrected from the dead and run for President again, and still the press would label him a racist member of the extreme right. It’s not going to be easy road running against Obama, especially if you’re Tim Pawlenty.
Tonight after Obama’s address to a joint session of Congress governor Bobby Jindal is giving the Republican response. Typically the response is pointless and for the most part it will be tonight. Jindal is probably the most brilliant politician to hit the national stage since Bill Clinton. Yes, I just skipped over the current president. Watching Obama speak away from a teleprompter is painful. Clinton and Jindal do not share that same problem. The Washington Post has more on Jindal.
Now, 17 years later, Jindal is governor of Louisiana and the anointed boy wonder of a Republican Party left battered by the 2008 election and hungry for new leadership. Jindal’s audition on the national stage is tonight, when he delivers his party’s response to President Obama’s address to a joint session of Congress.
Jindal, 37, was still working last night on the 10-minute speech. Aides said he is writing it himself, although he has received input from party leaders. The fast-talking governor plans to rehearse with a teleprompter today before giving the address live from the governor’s mansion in Baton Rouge.
He’s writing it himself? No one writes their own speeches anymore. Jindal is going to be receiving a lot of talk about running in 2012, but unless Obama crashes and burns I don’t expect to see Jindal run until 2016. The problems in Louisiana are enough to torpedo any national candidacy. If Jindal is successful in reforming Louisiana and reducing corruption he’ll be the likely choice for president in the future.



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