The Daily Plunge

The 2008 presidential election is just a little over a year away. Things are finally starting to take shape. I don’t really have a dog in this fight. None of the candidates have done anything to get me excited. Let’s look at the Democrat side first.

Hillary Clinton
Senator Clinton is the front runner for the nomination. She has the money, name recognition, and policy experience. There’s perhaps no savvier politician in the race. Since 1999 her life has been spent preparing for this race. Clinton’s connections in the Democrat party shouldn’t be underestimated, and it’s difficult seeing anyone else denying her an opportunity to secure the nomination. In the primary she’s running as the most presidential and electable candidate. Hillary isn’t a fantastic speaker but she knows her stuff. She has high unfavorable ratings, but in a general election anything is possible. It’s difficult to pick a winner this far out but I have to think she’s likely the next President of the United States.

Barack “Mr. Cellophane” Obama
The Illinois Senator has had a rough few months. The debates against Hillary haven’t gone well. Obama’s weakness is inexperience. Hillary has exposed that during the debates and he’s reinforced it with some of his comments on foreign policy. Obama represented the fresh face (much like Edwards in 2004), but he’s too far to the Left to win a general election. This “electability” factor is ultimately what ended Howard Dean’s hopes in 2004 and is what is going against Obama. Given his widespread appeal it’s difficult to believe he would be tipped to be VP on a Clinton ticket.
On the Democrat side that’s basically it. John Edwards has really lost the plot recently. He’s been in a media war with Ann Coulter and has basically (at least in perception) dropped to her level. It’s strange, I once thought Edwards had a real shot at being President, but his high water mark was before the 2004 convention. There are still many Democrats that would vote for Al Gore, but time is running out. It’s perhaps already too late for another candidate to come into the race this late and contend against the Clinton juggernaut.

Republicans
The Republicans are lost at the moment. There’s no clear front runner. The field is wide open. This can best be seen in the amount of money raised by the candidates. Republicans just aren’t excited about the current crop of contenders. It’s sort of amazing that the President never lined up some kind of successor. Eisenhower had Nixon, Reagan had Bush, and Clinton had Gore. Unless something drastic happens over the next six months Bush’s role in selecting a Republican nominee will diminish. Given his current popularity that might be a good thing for Republicans.

Rudy Giuliani
The former mayor of New York City is the closest thing to a front runner on the Republican side of things. It would be an interesting twist in history. In 2000 he was slated to run against Hillary Clinton for the New York Senate seat. After being diagnosed with cancer (among other messy personal issues) Giuliani withdrew his candidacy. Hillary went on to win the seat and Rudy went on to become Time’s Person of the Year after 9/11. His popularity since that event has propelled him toward the Republican nomination despite being socially liberal on several issues. In any other year his views on topics like abortion would be debilitating, but this isn’t any ordinary election. Giuliani is a great speaker, his speech at the 2004 Republican convention was the most memorable moment of the event. After eight years of divisiveness it’s difficult seeing the Left warm up to Rudy. I’m not sure the country is ready for that.

Mitt Romney
I really don’t know what to think of the former Governor of Massachusetts. His Dad George W. Romney ran unsuccessfully for president in 1968 when Nixon secured the Republican nomination. Much has been made of the fact that he’s Mormon. Some of the national polls regarding voting for someone of Mormon faith have been shocking. It appears that there’s more reluctance on the part of Americans to vote for a Mormon than for a woman or African American. Perhaps these polls are inaccurate, but it’s still a perception going again Romney. The fact that he’s flip-flopped on many issues is disconcerting as well. Flip-flopping dogged the Kerry campaign and is hurting Romney as well.

John McCain
For a long time McCain has been viewed as the strongest Republican candidate. After the immigration bill fiasco it’s plausible that McCain isn’t even a serious challenger. It’s an amazing turn of events for someone who has been the center of Presidential speculation the past eight years. The Senator from Arizona has never been a hero to conservatives, even though at this point he’s likely the most conservative candidate left. I think it’s too early to write him off entirely, but it’s going to be an uphill climb from here.

Fred Thompson
What is going on with this guy? Is he running or not running? The former Senator from Tennessee has been teasing Republicans for months now and the act may be getting old. It appears he’ll announce sometime in September, but has he missed an opportunity to cash in when the buzz was at its peak? Thompson still remains somewhat of an unknown at this point. He hasn’t been in any debates and remained on the outside of the process. He’s promised an unconventional campaign, but it remains to be seen whether or not that will help his cause.

Unlike the Democrat side there’s still a lot of money up for grabs. This makes it easier for someone to come in later in the process and mount a serious challenge. Thompson could be part of the reason Republican donors are holding onto their money. There are several other less known candidates that might come out of nowhere. Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee is one example. Right now I have no feel for what is happening on the Republican side. If I had to pick someone right now it would have to be Rudy, but I’m just guessing. The next 15 months should be fun.