I have often asserted that to be successful in presidential politics it matters less what the president is doing in the White House than what’s going on in the economy. It’s nearly impossible for a president to successfully run for reelection if the economy is in the tank. This explains Obama’s sinking approval ratings. Rasmussen has Obama’s approval rating at 52%. Republicans are leading the generic ballot. In other words, if an election was held today Obama would probably win, but the Democrats would lose tons of seats in Congress. The generic ballot suggests that it’s not out of the realm of possibility for the Republicans to take control of the House in the mid-term elections.
Obviously there’s a lot of time before any kind of election and everything can change. Obama has barely been in office for six months so projections about his future are not certain; however, the idea that he’s untouchable should slowly start fading. The president’s future is tied with the economy. If things don’t start turning before the mid-terms his party will take a beating at the polls. Expect the press to blame Christians and angry white males. The economy is the real culprit.
Politics is a crazy thing. Anyone who truly believed that there was some kind of seismic political shift in America in November is just kidding themselves. A few weeks ago the New York Times said that the GOP risked “losing a generation.” Oh really? Well, now Republicans hold a small lead on the generic ballot for the first time in years. Even when Republicans were the majority their lead on the generic ballot was minuscule. Obviously the next set of elections is long ways off and everything could change before 2010; however, the Democrats position is tenuous. I don’t think we’ll be seeing a New York Times article title “Democrats Risk Losing Majority.”
