Sarah Palin is unavoidable. She has her own show on TLC. Her daughter is on a popular TV show. She has another book on the way. She’s mentioned almost every night on the late night monologues. There’s no other figure on the right who draws as much vitriol from the left now that President Bush is out of office. The odd thing is Palin never really says anything controversial. She hasn’t urged the Tea Party to “punish their enemies.” Despite her enormous political talents there’s no way I could ever support her for President in 2012. It would be hypocritical to support such an unqualified candidate after ripping on President Obama for four years.
The President and Sarah Palin share some similar problems. Overexposure is the major one. The President never misses an opportunity to be on TV. I keep waiting for him to have a guest spot on Mantracker. The fact that the show is produced in Canada only increases the likelihood that it might happen. I have an enormous amount of respect for the office of the Presidency. I know the information age requires different ways and means for the White House to project itself, but I’d like to think that the President can rise above the Daily Show or Mythbusters.
I long for grown-up leadership. Someone who is above the cultural fray. Someone who has a record of leadership and a steady hand. The nation needs an outsider. I’m not worried about what the left thinks of the person. They hated Reagan, they hated Bush and his son, and they hate anyone to the right of John Kerry. It’s what they do, but there are far too many establishment Republicans who care what the Beltway and Coastal Left think.
Failure 2010
I’m headed back to sunny Florida. I haven’t had much time to write about last night’s election results. There’s not much to add. Pollsters like Rasmussen were pretty much right on the money again. The Republicans enjoyed a massive electoral wave all over the United States and took back at least 60 seats. The Senate was an uphill climb and I’m sure the DNC is happy it’s not 2012. Most of the Senate seats up for grabs were Republican and the Democratic seats were in solid blue states.
The most depressing part of the election to me is California. That state appears to be heading toward becoming a banana republic. First they elected Arnold Swartzenager, and now they’ve elect Jerry Brown. Brown hasn’t had a single good idea in three decades and now he’s the governor again. Thanks in part to out of control ballot initiatives California’s budget situation is unfixable.
In Florida the new Senator is Marco Rubio. The Democrats fought tooth and nail to keep him from being elected because he’s potentially a superstar politician. Let’s not parse facts. The Democrats stonewalled Miguel Estrada’s nomination to the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit because he was Hispanic. They opposed Rubio for the exact same reason. When it comes to racism the Democrats have it down to a science.
Where do we go from here? I’m not so sure. The GOP has a lot to prove before I get too excited. I believe the Republican leadership should outline three or four main initiatives that have overwhelming support. A Balanced Budget Amendment, an alternative to ObamaCare, and a spending cut bill. These should have overwhelming public support and the Democrats will oppose each of them on philosophical grounds. The danger is spending cuts. Americans are overwhelmingly in favor of spending cuts, but I don’t believe it. The Department of Homeland Security and the Department of Education should be gone, but there would be an outcry. Try to reduce farm subsides and there will be riots. Slow down the growth of Medicare and the AARP will stonewall it. I’m not sure what the answer is to this problem. Americans have to wake up to the reality that we can’t afford all this stuff.
What about President Obama? It’s far too early to start speculating about his chances in 2012. In 1982, Ronald Reagan got trounced in the mid-terms. In 1994, Bill Clinton’s reelection hopes looked bleak. A lot can happen in two years. If I had to put money on it I would bet on Obama. The economy doesn’t normally stay down for long. An economic rebound would eliminate all of Obama’s problems. The new leadership in the House shouldn’t underestimate the power of the White House. Obama has tried to paint the Republicans as obstructionists despite the fact they had no power. Now that the GOP controls the House expect the President to turn up the rhetoric.
Finally, it’s time to say goodbye to Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi. I believe she is one of the worst Speakers in the history of the United States. She was divisive and horrendously out of touch with the American mainstream. It’s beyond me why the Democrats chose an extreme leftist as their party’s leader in the House. The leader of the party is typically not very popular with the opposition, but Pelosi wasn’t popular with anyone. Also, a special goodbye to Governor Charlie Crist. Crist has become the Florida version of John Edwards, without all of the bastard-child-mistress-wife-with-cancer-sleezy-lawyer-faux-man-of-the-people negatives, as far as we know. The man has no principle. His actions the past twelve months are a disgrace. Charlie Crist is the perfect example of a person who puts his ego and career ambitions ahead of everyone else. Good riddance.
The place where the Republic goes to die.
Sink, Sinking, Sunk: Florida governor hopeful Alex Sink’s claims that she was unaware her adviser was sneaking in helpful hints during the debates has backfired. Any time CNN says a Democrat has lied the writing is on the wall. Getting caught cheating during a debate is a disaster for any campaign, but for this to happen the week before the election might be a back breaker.
Follow the Money: According to the talking points of “progressives” and the White House the Democrats are simply victims of a money game. If they were to be believed the Democrats are getting outspent by the rich Republicans and their ties to the evil Chamber of Commerce. The poor Democrats and their third-party contributers have outspent their “enemies” by almost $200 million. Yet, the Vice President continues to insist there’s some kind of evil corporation conspiracy to blame for the GOP surge. Why are Democrats making up demons to chase? It’s because their legislative record over the past two years is a disaster. Now that ObamaCare has passed what else is left for a party to give away?
The Rise of the Machines: For years Democrats have complained about voter machines. My district removed touchscreen voting machines after a scare campaign by Democrats. In Nevada, the voting machine technicians are members of a union that donate primarily to Democrats.
Now there’s absolutely no independently verified evidence of chicanery with the voting machines (yet), but it is worth noting that the voting machine technicians in Clark County are members of the Service Employees International Union. The SEIU spent $63 million in elections in 2008 and is planning on spending $44 million more this election cycle — nearly all of that on Democrats. White House political director Patrick Gaspard is formerly the SEIU’s top lobbyist, and former SEIU president Andy Stern was the most frequent visitor to the White House last year.
Just in Nevada, the SEIU has given a lot to groups that are heavily vested in the state — in just one prominent example, the SEIU gave $500,000 to the Patriot Majority PAC, which has spent $1.3 million against Reid’s opponent Sharron Angle. They’ve and have dropped large sums directly on candidates:
NV-3 Joe Heck (R) Oppose $140,000.00 NV-3 Dina Titus (D) Support $344,984.00 NV-Senate Sharron E. Angle (R) Oppose $225,000.00
I’m not suggesting there’s some kind of elaborate conspiracy going on here. It’s most likely just one of those coincidences. However, it’s far more likely that some SEIU thugs will rig machines at the local level than the loony theory that Bush and the military industrial complex fixed machines all over the United States.
The War on Terror has Ended: Apparently no one told the American people, but al-Qaeda is no longer a threat to the United States, at least according to esteemed “representative” Betty McCollum. So break out the banners, the ticker tape and the beer! It’s V-AQ Day!
The generic ballot might be the most accurate indicator of how Congressional elections will go in November. In November 2008 the Democrats held a six point advantage (47-41). With a month to go before the mid-term election the GOP holds a six point lead (46-40). I expect this number to close some over the next few weeks, but the Republicans will have a large enough lead to win back the House.
Some prognosticators are predicting an election tidal wave. Former Clinton administration adviser Dick Morris is leading the charge with a column titled “Obliterating a generation of Democrats.”
Republicans are now leading in 54 Democratic House districts. In 19 more, the incumbent congressman is under 50 percent and his GOP challenger is within five points. That makes 73 seats where victory is within easy grasp for the Republican Party. The only reason the list is not longer is that there are 160 Democratic House districts that were considered so strongly blue that there is no recent polling available.
I don’t doubt the GOP is pleased with the way the election is shaping up, but it’s not going to quite what Morris imagines. Morris also believes the Republicans will reclaim the majority in the Senate. There’s a huge enthusiasm gap out there, but some of the Democrats will come back to roost before November. Sure the base is disillusioned over a variety of different reasons, but enough liberals are scared enough of Sarah Palin to get out the vote.
If Obama was a member of the Tea Party the mainstream press would point out that there were a lot of white people at the event.
Meanwhile, President Obama is on the campaign trail doing what he does best: talk. No one questions the President’s ability to talk, it’s just that he doesn’t say anything. Today he gave a speech at the UW-Madison campus in Wisconsin in front of 26,000 people, which included a few Ben Harper fans.
“The biggest mistake we can make right now is to let disappointment lead to apathy,” Obama said. “I am promising you Wisconsin, change is going to come. You got to stick with me. You can’t lose hope.”
Change hasn’t come yet? I thought we were the ones we were waiting for! I guess that’s so 2008. The article includes a great quote by a “younger voter.”
Dana Brinkmann, 28, attended the rally. Like many young voters, she hadn’t given much thought to the midterms. But following Obama’s speech, she changed her mind.
“It’s funny how moved I am,” she said. “I’m absolutely going to vote, and if I didn’t come here, I wouldn’t.”
It’s not really funny; it’s sad and pathetic. If this is the typical young voter then the GOP is good shape. They’re too dumb to think about mid-terms and the President is going to have to hold a rally in every city in the country to make the hipster dufus crowd show up. Dude, what a buzzkill!
Banned for Life: Call Sarah Palin names and it’s no big deal, but if you’re an English bloke who is plastered (who isn’t?) and called the President a prick you’re going to be banned for life.
The furious FBI asked local cops to tell college student Luke Angel, 17, his drunken insult was “unacceptable”. Luke yesterday admitted he fired off a single email criticising the US Government after seeing a TV programme about 9/11.
He said: “I don’t remember exactly what I wrote as I was drunk. But I think I called Barack Obama a p***k. It was silly – the sort of thing you do when you’re a teenager and have had a few.”
I’m sure Obama would love to ban Americans from doing things, like choosing their own health insurance or Sarah Palin. Unfortunately, there’s the Constitution or something. Fortunately, this kid in England didn’t do something truly heinous like burn the Koran.
In It to Win It: I can’t really tell you much about the political atmosphere in Delaware. However, GOP Senatorial primary candidate Christine O’Donnell seems to have fallen out of favor with the Republican establishment. Perhaps, there’s good reason, but simply passing on her because she may be “too conservative” for Delaware isn’t good enough for me. Let’s look at the Northeast… Why should conservatives back Democrat Lite? If I’m John Smith, Delaware citizen, and I’m fed up with the idiots running my state what does Democrat Lite have to offer? I can tell you, more Democrat crap. So quit endorsing these guys and let the ship sink. When they’re ready for real change we’ll send them a real conservative to clean up the mess.
Bieber Fever is the New Progressive Strategy: Add this to the list of thing that would drive James Madison crazy. Progressives are planning on using the power of el Justin Bieber to drive the get-out-the-vote. Apparently, 12-year-old girls will be so annoying that parents all over the nation will vote for Democrats. How, you may ask? I have no clue. Grasping at straws? Yes! No coherent plan to right the fiscal wrongs of the United States? Yes!
“We’re trying to leverage Bieber fever,” Campus Progress’s Sara Haile-Mariam told POLITICO. “Most of his fans are 12 years old — we acknowledge that.” Still, they hope that Bieber fans will “tell their parents. … The hope is to create something that goes viral and gets young people to be aware of the election.”
Perhaps it’s time for a Constitutional amendment banning boy bands and teen heartthrobs. It’s become apparent that they pose a threat to the republic. The Galactic Republic, that is. This scene from the Star Wars saga sums it up:
Can someone explain to me how dealing with “absolutes” is evil? Is stating the fact that 2 + 2 = 4 evil? Did Jedis ban math? Is that why Anakin Skywalker attacked Obi Wan when he had the higher ground? Wait, wasn’t that an absolute statement by Obi Wan? Or, is that a relative statement about Anakin’s life choices? George Lucus is a genius. What does this have to do with Justin Bieber? What does Beiber have to do with elections? Think about that one….
It’s coming to television near you. The November elections are slowly but surely creeping upon us. It’s a Republican year, whatever that means. Hailed as “change,” “hope,” and other nonsense words, 2006 and 2008 were Democrat years. The American electorate had shifted forever, we were told. I never drank the Kool-aid. The nation was in a difficult situation in Iraq and the press was devoted to negative 24/7 news coverage. Some things have changed the past four years and some things have stayed the same.
The Democrats rule Washington now and Iraq is no longer in the headlines; however, there’s still enough bad news to go around. The economy stinks and it doesn’t look like it’s improving for awhile. The Democrat solutions so far have been massive handouts to their constituents, a.k.a., politically-powerful and already-monied cronies like unions. Americans are outraged. The other big accomplishment for the Democrats is ObamaCare. While the economy ails and the nation lurches toward bankruptcy the Democrats forced a massive health care takeover bill through Congress. The Republicans don’t have a clue, don’t have a plan, and simply being not-as-incompetent appears to be the GOP platform.
In 2006, the Democrats ran successfully as fiscal conservatives. The Democrats that won that year may actually believe their own rhetoric, but the party is completely opposed to restraining the size and funding of government. President Obama doesn’t care about fiscal restraint and his solution to every problem is a new government agency, program, or czar to oversee it. This has created an election nightmare for the Democrats. Their leadership has a political philosophy that is the exact opposite of the average American voter. The Democratic party is devoted to the current immigration situation; in fact, they’re okay with amnesty. The Democratic party wants socialized medicine. The Left is disappointed that ObamaCare wasn’t bigger. The Democrats want to drive up the cost of energy to save the planet. The Democrats would rather raise taxes and spend more money during a recession. The Republicans don’t have to do anything to run against these morons.
The fact that the GOP doesn’t have to do anything is a major problem. There’s no debate. This is another election about nothing. Someone tell me what the Republicans are going to do when they’re elected? I’ll tell you what they’ll do. Not a damn thing. They won’t have the votes to accomplish anything except to block Obama’s agenda. In some ways I’m sure the President is looking forward to demonizing the new majority. The press won’t have a problem with this talking point. The White House has bashed their detractors from day one. The Republicans need to have a plan or they will just be temporary government caretakers.
It’s only a few months until November and it’s not likely that any kind of economic rebound is going to save the Democrats in the Fall. The American public’s view of ObamaCare hasn’t gotten better (worse, if anything) and the Democrats do not have anything popular to offer. In fact, the two major pieces of their agenda, climate change and immigration, are political kryptonite. Some political observers are predicting an election tsunami:
That’s the projection of Republican new media maven Patrick Ruffini. Lest you write off his projection that a 70-seat Republican gain (which would leave Republicans with a 248-187 majority, larger than any they have won since 1928) keep in mind that Ruffini was one of the very first to predict that Marco Rubio could become the leader in the Florida Senate race and that Scott Brown had a very real chance to win in Massachusetts. Here I should add the usual caveats about how opinion can change and the balance of enthusiasm could change even faster. But the Democrats’ current tactic of prioritizing legislation to weaken Republicans’ standings (among all voters on financial regulation, among Hispanics on immigration, among young voters on cap-and-trade and the environment) doesn’t really address their current problem, which is that the Democrats’ standing among voters is at a record low and that they’re getting pasted in polls despite the fact that the Republicans’ standing among voters is not particularly high.
The question is what happens if this takes place? The Republicans don’t really have strong voice right now and I’m not sure what their prepared to offer if they’re ushered back into power. I know what the conservative/libertarian ideas are, but what does the GOP have to offer? Supposedly the GOP is small government, but what are they going to do?
Obama would have to meet in the middle to accomplish anything, but what would that mean? If the GOP wants to cash in on the current electoral landscape they need to come up with some populist ideas. Otherwise the White House is going to have a Saul Alinsky field day picking on various leaders in Congress. President Obama isn’t prepared for an ideological debate about fiscal issues.
There isn’t a lot of common sense when it comes to the issue of illegal immigration. The two major camps on the issue fall into an isolationist policy vs. an amnesty policy. Neither one of those choices is intelligent. The Democratic party views illegal immigrants as a potential new voting bloc, though I’m not so sure that’s really the case in the long run. Senator Harry Ried of Nevada is still beating the “immigration reform” drum despite the fact it’s killing his reelection chances.
“We are going to pass comprehensive immigration reform,” Reid told the crowd. “We need to do this this year. We can’t let excuses like a Supreme Court nomination get in the way.”
Reid promised the legislation would include provisions to secure both the north and south borders, revisions to a guest worker program, and provisions to deal with illegal immigrants already in the country.
“There are no excuses. This is something America needs,” Reid said. “We’re going to do immigration reform just like we did health care reform.”
Yikes, just like health care reform? Is that a threat or a promise. I don’t even think the Democrats are crazy enough to push amnesty through Congress. I don’t understand why we can just crack down on illegal immigration and create a lawful way for Mexicans to become citizens. However, I don’t understand the isolationist position either.
The isolationist portion of the GOP don’t want anyone to move here. These people don’t understand free trade or basic economics. This is the more populist position at the current time, but it’s not one that should be encouraged. With the Democrats in power this is the best chance for immigration reform, but no one on the left is talking about creating a legal path to citizenship without amnesty.
If Harry Ried and company decide to push this over the summer the elections in November could be a bloodbath. I’m talking a Republican super majority. The Democrats decided to lose the majority by passing ObamaCare, but I don’t think that amnesty is worth the political fallout.
This won’t make partisan Republicans happy, but I think the economy is headed in the right direction. It probably won’t recover quickly enough to save the Democrats in November, but for Obama there’s a lot to be optimistic about. First of all the President was able to pass his key item: health care. It doesn’t matter if it’s unpopular; there’s no chance it will be repealed while he’s in the White House. Plus, thanks to the way the bill was written most of the truly heinous problems won’t starting destroying the heath care system for a decade. Sometimes it’s good to be King.
Save us Obi Wan Constitution. You're our only hope.
The economy is always the main issue in elections and I’ve thought for months Americans aren’t really angry with the White House; they’re angry about the economy. The Republicans should quit banking on the economy staying in the tank forever and come up with a plan to save the Republic. Obama and the Democrats are a short-term business cycle rebound from bankrupting the nation forever. At this stage it’s time for a Reaganesque “starve the beast” strategy. If Americans want to be sold a populist bill of goods then so be it.
I wrote last month about the Balanced Budget Amendment. This is a very populist bill that despite its economic theory problems is a best solution available to solve the nightmare fiscal situation we’re facing. Let’s be frank. Despite the fact the President has insisted that his health care bill is deficit neutral, it’s not. He’s living in fantasy land. The claim is laughable and reflects what Obama thinks about the intelligence of the American people. Even The Economist, which endorsed Obama’s bill, thinks that it’s going to add to the debt. The GOP should move fast and make the Balanced Budget Amendment the keystone issue in the 2010 election.
Faced with a Constitutional amendment mandate, Congress will be forced to either raise taxes or cut entitlements. The nation needs to make this choice sooner, rather than later. If we had honest leadership we would be addressing these problems now instead of passing it off on some other generation. The only question is can enough people push for this amendment before it’s too late?
If the RNC is any indication there’s not a lot of hope for the GOP. The RNC supposedly doesn’t like big government but they don’t mind it as long as they’re in power. There needs to be a revolution inside the GOP if there’s any hope of tackling America’s fiscal problems.
I haven’t written very much about the much publicized Tea Party movement, mostly due to the fact that it’s a rather faceless mob. The Republican establishment isn’t fueling it. In fact, the GOP elite look down their nose at the angry mob. The Democrats consider anyone to the right of Tom Harkin a wingnut. It’s not surprising that centrist Democrats are fleeing into the open arms of the GOP. The Tea Party types are really asking for change.
The Tea Partiers are united by what they opposed. What do they oppose? Well, practically everything, but that’s not the entire story. A growing segment of Americans are sick and tired of lying politicians who are absolutely corrupt. They’re fed up with all the spending. New York Times columnist David Brook believes there’s a rift between the educated class and the public. The educated class is a bit broad, but there’s a healthy dose of skepticism about the ideas of the elite.
Why shouldn’t the public be skeptical? The so-called elites are always of full of ideas born in some abstract backwater far removed from reality, but that doesn’t mean that any of them are any good. Free food for the entire population is a great idea. Well, until you try to figure out how to do it or pay for it. The educated class has been great at coming up with ideas we can’t afford. The American middle class has paid for all these forays into Utopia. Here’s Brook’s take on the Tea Party’s future:
The movement is especially popular among independents. The Rasmussen organization asked independent voters whom they would support in a generic election between a Democrat, a Republican and a tea party candidate. The tea party candidate won, with 33 percent of independents. Undecided came in second with 30 percent. The Democrats came in third with 25 percent and the Republicans fourth with 12 percent.
Over the course of this year, the Tea Party movement will probably be transformed. Right now it is an amateurish movement with mediocre leadership. But several bright and polished politicians, like Marco Rubio of Florida and Gary Johnson of New Mexico, are unofficially competing to become its de facto leader. If they succeed, their movement is likely to outgrow its crude beginnings and become a major force in American politics. After all, it represents arguments that are deeply rooted in American history.
There a plenty of political scenarios in play here. I’ll play prognosticator. In the short run (2010) Republicans will benefit from the anti-government fever. The Tea Party will remain rather faceless until we move further into the year. I don’t know who will ultimately rise out of the chaos, but someone will try to attach themselves to the movement. 2012 could be a disaster for the GOP. The Democrats will be united behind Obama. If not, they’ll be united behind whoever the party nominates for election. I doubt the GOP embraces the Tea Party. They’re outsiders and the Republican hierarchy will reject it. The Tea Party could be Ross Perot on steroids. Unless there’s some kind of amazing groundswell of support, I can’t see a third-party candidate winning. Ultimately, a strong Tea Party candidate only siphons votes from the GOP.
In the long run the Tea Party movement could mean the end of the GOP as it exists today. It also (despite widespread ridicule from the left) may represent the only chance at real change being offered in politics. The Democrats are for more of the same. The Republicans are opposed to the status quo but are unwilling to do anything. Perhaps this is the answer of the Progressive Era.
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