How Are We Going to Pay for All of This?

On March 23, 2010, in Economics, Politics, by Henshaw

Obama signs the Health Care bill and then hands the invoice to a little child who will have to pay for it.

Greg Mankiw always offers a level headed analysis on economic issues. It’s probably a prerequisite for every non-liberal who wants to work at Harvard. It seems the supporters of ObamaCare have put aside all the negative aspects of the bill and have a adopted the lies from the White House and Congress.

The other group is kind of like The Economist. The UK-based news magazine has really lost touch with logic lately. Their argument in favor of ObamaCare is as weak as it is logical. The basic argument is that any bill is better than no bill at all. This is a news magazine that calls itself The Economist?

What’s odd is that when President Bush tried to tackle reforming Social Security no one adopted the “let’s pass something” approach. The Republicans abandoned reform because they feared political backlash. The Democrats are philosophically opposed to fixing any entitlement. It’s in the DNA of the Democratic party to expand and break as many entitlement programs as possible.

Notice that no Republican advocates a serious reform of Medicare. The Democrats are the welfare party, and the Republicans are simply the caretakers of the welfare state. While the left longingly gazes at their Obama posters the President has never said how he’s going to pay for all these goodies. That’s Greg Mankiw’s point.

The Obama administration’s political philosophy is more egalitarian and more communitarian than mine. Their spending programs require much higher taxes than we have now and, indeed, much higher taxes than they have had the temerity to propose. Here is the question I have been wondering about: How long can the President wait before he comes clean with the American people and explains how high taxes needs to rise to pay for his vision of government?

I’ll go one step further because the Republicans aren’t prepared for the serious challenges ahead. The taxes needed to pay for all these programs will have to be enormous. The GOP doesn’t have the guts to tackle the problem. Taxing the rich isn’t going to pay for it all. If people are concerned about the economy right now, just wait until the VAT tax starts.

I’m not sure Obama even cares. Perhaps he just wants to be the guy who gave the U.S. health care. Obama will let some other administration clean up the wreckage. Hey, Lyndon Johnson is still considered a great president and he only got us mired in Vietnam, started the welfare state, and gave us Medicare.

It seems liberals are determined to turn the U.S. into one big giant pyramid scheme. This might last five, fifteen, or twenty-five years, but eventually the whole house of card falls. Progressives love to tell sob stories about the disadvantaged. What about the working man whose paycheck is being siphoned away? Who is helping the forgotten man and how are we going to afford this when he’s out of job?

dave barry: the year of change

On January 4, 2010, in Politics, by Henshaw

I saw this over at Greg Mankiw’s site but it’s too good not to repost here. It’s from Dave Barry’s end of year column in the Washington Post.

It was a year of Hope — at first in the sense of “I feel hopeful!” and later in the sense of “I hope this year ends soon!”
It was also a year of Change, especially in Washington, where the tired old hacks of yesteryear finally yielded the reins of power to a group of fresh, young, idealistic, new-idea outsiders such as Nancy Pelosi. As a result, Washington, rejected “business as usual,” finally stopped trying to solve every problem by throwing billions of taxpayer dollars at it, and instead started trying to solve every problem by throwing trillions of taxpayer dollars at it.

One of the biggest problems facing the White House in 2009 was how do you deliver on a campaign of change? Our government is a sausage factory. It’s very difficult to institute change. The idea that Obama was some grassroots outsider going to Washington was always a myth. I suspect that many of the grassroots are currently disillusioned, but they’ll inevitably come back to the fold.
Dave Barry sums it up very well. After eight years of spending us into bankruptcy the Democrats decided spending more was the answer. It’s astounding. If the Democrat leadership doesn’t tack back to the center soon the economy is going to suffer.

The Partisan Economist: Paul Krugman

On November 30, 2009, in Economics, Politics, by Henshaw

I deeply respect what Paul Krugman accomplished as an economist. His work in new trade theory earned a Nobel Prize in economics. However, he has become so partisan in his editorials that he is quickly diminishing his reputation. He was on This Week with George Snuffleupagus… I mean Stephanopoulos… and he claimed that in the climate change debate “there is tremendously more money in being a skeptic than there is in being a supporter.” This ridiculous statement earned Krugman the Watts Up With That? quote of the week. I guess we can give Krugman a break since it appears climate change is not his area of expertise.

I wish that was the only problem with Krugman. Last week he wrote an article about the Tobin tax that was odd. It’s odd because for someone who is supposedly an intellectual giant in economics, he’s completely naïve when it comes to tax evasion. Greg Mankiw was left scratching his head after reading Krugman’s claim that financial transactions will not be moved if there’s a Tobin tax.

This is the danger of extreme partisanship, especially in regard to economics. Krugman is basically just endorsing whatever stupid new plan the Democrats come up with. From an economics perspective the Democrats don’t have many bright ideas right now. For Krugman I guess he’s decided to sheath the sword and just deal with the fallout. As long as the Democrats keep dreaming up new ways to tax productive people investors are going to quit investing. Until investors have confidence again the economy is going to stall. It seems like Krugman would understand this simple concept, but it appears he can’t see through his political blinders.

it’s the economy stupid

On November 22, 2009, in Politics, by Henshaw

President Obama’s approval numbers are at the same point in his presidency as Ronald Reagan and for similar reasons. The economy was struggling in 1981, much like it is today, except interest rates were much higher. The economy bounced back big in 1983 and 1984 which helped propel Reagan to a landslide reelection. History could repeat itself, but there’s no guarantee. Reagan and Obama have vastly different ideas on how to jump-start the economy. Reagan cut taxes and Obama has signed a massive pork bill. The horrendous stimulus bill that Obama shamelessly promised would save jobs is a dud. If a Republican president passed a bill like that it would be the subject of ridicule. The White House’s fake number of jobs saved is hilarious, but it’s not making waves outside the beltway.
Greg Mankiw cites a new paper from Harvard’s Alberto Alesina and Silvia Ardagna about fiscal policy.

We examine the evidence on episodes of large stances in fiscal policy, both in cases of fiscal stimuli and in that of fiscal adjustments in OECD countries from 1970 to 2007. Fiscal stimuli based upon tax cuts are more likely to increase growth than those based upon spending increases. As for fiscal adjustments, those based upon spending cuts and no tax increases are more likely to reduce deficits and debt over GDP ratios than those based upon tax increases. In addition, adjustments on the spending side rather than on the tax side are less likely to create recessions. (emphasis added)

There’s nothing shocking about this paper. Common sense is obviously lacking right now on Capitol Hill. The nation is facing a recession and the White House is pushing a partisan health care bill through Congress that will increase the debt burden. This isn’t going to restore confidence in investors, entrepreneurs and small businesses. It seems as if Obama and the Democrats have forgotten who fuels economic growth in this country. It’s not the federal government.

Dick Armey on Larry Summers

On November 9, 2009, in Economics, by Henshaw

I caught this quote over at Greg Mankiw’s site. Generally I’ve always liked Dick Armey, but his comment about economist Larry Summers is just partisan hyperbole.

“I don’t consider Larry Summers a serious economist,” Armey said. “You can get a Ph.D. from Harvard without ever having seriously considered the subject.”

Now some of the things Larry Summers has said over the past year have been puzzling. It doesn’t appear like Obama has a strong economic head on his shoulders and Summers’ standing has taken a beating. That aside, it’s ridiculous to say that a Ph.D from Harvard is meaningless.

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the obama presser

On July 23, 2009, in Politics, by Henshaw

I tried to watch Obama’s press conference last night but it was painful. I guess he was trying to win over people who can’t think? Some of his answers were just terrible. Obama isn’t running for president anymore. He can’t just say “we need to reduce costs.” How are we going to do that? Quit telling the American people why and start telling us how you’re going to do it. So far no one has put forth a plan that does what Obama wants. Pardon me if I don’t believe Obama when he says he’ll veto a bill he doesn’t like. Greg Mankiw posted his friend’s analysis of the press conference and it looks accurate to me.

  • If Republicans have good ideas, then Obama certainly wants to use them, and he will decide if they are good ideas.
  • If Republicans don’t vote for a healthcare plan put together by Democrats, they are just playing politics.
  • Ninety-seven percent of Americans will be covered, and there will be no increase in cost.
  • Nobody will be denied needed health care, and there will be a committee to decide who needs what, which was one of the Republican good ideas.
  • A government run alternative is needed to keep private insurance costs down because government is more efficient.
  • It takes about 10 minutes to answer each question about health care.

the ends justify the means

On July 20, 2009, in Politics, by Henshaw

The president campaigned on running an honest and transparent government. There’s nothing honest and transparent about the current administration. Obama is misleading the nation on health care, taxes, and budget projections. Instead of being up front about the real numbers the White House is delaying the annual budget update.

The administration’s annual midsummer budget update is sure to show higher deficits and unemployment and slower growth than projected in President Barack Obama’s budget in February and update in May, and that could complicate his efforts to get his signature health care and global-warming proposals through Congress.
The release of the update — usually scheduled for mid-July — has been put off until the middle of next month, giving rise to speculation the White House is delaying the bad news at least until Congress leaves town Aug. 7 on its summer recess.

The White House wants to bury bad news because it endangers their plans for health care reform. Why would they do that? Well, because the administration is willing to do just about anything to pass some kind of health care reform. Things have gotten so bad that Larry Summers, the president’s chief economic adviser, is making speeches that contradict what most economists believe. Greg Mankiw has more:

This[Larry Summers'] statement, while seemingly sensible to some laymen, is actually inconsistent with standard economic analysis, such as that offered by the Congressional Budget Office. The CBO tells us that the healthcare bills being considered in Congress will increase rather than decrease health spending and so will hardly assure markets the Federal debt is under control. The CBO also tells us that health spending does not raise problems of international competitiveness. My understanding is that the CBO analysis of these subjects is not at all controversial among professional economists.

On the issue of health care Obama is the exact opposite of honest and transparent. The president is frankly lying to the American people. For the new administration the ends must justify the means. The facts don’t add up, but we “have to do something.” This kind of thinking is the bedrock of “progressive” disasters. In Obama’s mind it’s better to pass something horrible and fix it later, rather than not “do something.” This is how the government works. Bad programs are created that are impossible to remove. People will get affordable health care in the short run that cannot be paid for in the long run. By the time people realize we can’t afford it, it’s too late. Entitlements cannot be removed and they’re slowly bleeding the nation to death. Obama should know better, but liberals can’t seem to grasp this concept.

health care nonsense

On May 25, 2009, in Politics, by Henshaw

There’s a great deal of misinformation about our current health care system. It’s important for our leaders to have an in depth understanding of these issues; however, for so many politicians it’s better to look like you know what you’re talking about than to actually have a clue. The president and the left are determined to make health care worse in an effort to make things better. This is a common tactic for the left. Plus, it seems like they always have a loose grip on the facts.
Here’s President Obama talking about the differences between the current health care debate compared to the debate in 1993.

President Obama: “I think the biggest change politically is, is that businesses now recognize that if we don’t get a handle on this stuff that they are going to continue to be operating at a competitive disadvantage with other countries. And so they anxiously seek serious reform.”
Greg Mankiw: “A common argument, often made by ostensibly sophisticated commentators, is that the United States needs to reform its health care system to maintain its international competitiveness. Regardless of your views of health care reform, this particular argument is, to put it bluntly, nonsense. Long ago, Paul Krugman wrote a nice piece demolishing the whole concept of international competitiveness as a motive for national economic policy. More recently, the Congressional Budget Office has done a nice job explaining why the idea of international competitiveness as a reason for health care reform is fallacious.”

I’m not sure if Mankiw realized Obama has been using this argument, but “ostensibly sophisticated” sounds a lot like our current president. There’s two ways to look at the President’s statement. Either he’s lying or he’s just ignorant when it comes to this talking point. My guess is that the president is just misinformed. If Obama’s presidency has taught me anything so far, it’s that when it comes to in-depth issues it’s all style over substance.

The difference between the president’s rhetoric on health care and Miss Arizona’s answer is all style. If you parse the president’s answers on most issues he never says anything definitive. The real trick is making people believe you actually know what you’re talking about. Sorry Miss Arizona, you have a lot of work to do before anyone believes you’re intelligent about health care.

obama’s budget cut idiocy

On April 20, 2009, in Politics, by Henshaw

Let’s just stop this marketing campaign before it begins. President Obama is going to trim the federal budget by minuscule $100 million. For anyone with half a brain this is hilarious. $100 million is a drop in the bucket. The only reason the Obama administration is floating this balloon is in hopes it fools stupid people. It’s unfathomable that this man could campaign for three years on change and transparency and offer something as ridiculous as a $100 million “cut” and then act like it’s some kind accomplishment. Greg Mankiw laments

Just to be clear: $100 million represents .003 percent of $3.5 trillion.
To put those numbers in perspective, imagine that the head of a household with annual spending of $100,000 called everyone in the family together to deal with a $34,000 budget shortfall. How much would he or she announce that spending had be cut? By $3 over the course of the year–approximately the cost of one latte at Starbucks. The other $33,997? We can put that on the family credit card and worry about it next year.

Why even bother then? What does the president hope to achieve by reducing the budget by $100? The New York Yankees spent $400 million in the off season. The US government spends $100 million every 13 minutes. The Democrats might be losing the plot. In 2006 many moderate Democrats ran successfully against Republican fiscal irresponsibility. Those same Democrats pledged at the time to stop financial responsibility and to end the “culture of corruption.” Since 2006 things have gotten worse and if Democrats don’t wake up those moderate Democrats will be the next up on the chopping block. Offering to reduce spending by $100 million is positively ridiculous.

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spending our way towards bankruptcy

On March 4, 2009, in Politics, by Henshaw

One of the myths about the United States government since Reagan was elected in 1980 is that government became smaller. Reagan was able to reduce the tax burden to encourage investment, but he didn’t reduce spending. As Greg Mankiw points out the federal outlays as a percentage of GDP have remained relatively the same the past fifty years.

Over the last century, the largest increase in the size of the government occurred during the Great Depression and World War II. Even after these crises were over, they left a legacy of higher spending and taxes. To this day, we have yet to come to grips with how to pay for all that the government created during that era — a problem that will become acute as more baby boomers retire and start collecting the benefits promised.

What Reagan accomplished during his first term was explaining to the American people that government was not the solution to combat a terrible economic crisis. The economy was in much worse shape in the early 80′s when Reagan became president than it is today. He certainly didn’t call call for the kind of spending Obama and Bush have been asking for the past six months.
Conservatives have never had enough votes to curtail federal spending. Once the government starts spending money it never gives up control. For the past fifty years most Americans have been apathetic. Since the New Deal the nation has been squandering the inheritance of future generations. The reality is the nation cannot afford the programs initiated during the Great Depression for more than seventy years. The Great Society tacked on a few more unsustainable programs. President Bush’s prescription drug plan was another government giveaway that is unfeasible in the long-run. After 9/11 instead waiting to find out what the recommendations of the 9/11 commission the Congress created the Homeland Security Department. If we learned anything during that attack it was that the CIA and FBI didn’t communicate. I can’t see how having three agencies is going to make that better.
It seems that liberals don’t care how much the nation spends and moderates aren’t concerned enough to take a stand. It doesn’t matter how much taxes are raised or how many speeches the president makes, the nation is headed towards bankruptcy unless their’s a significant change in our spending priorities. Higher taxes will only damage the economy. It’s time for the government to cut back.

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