Plunging Towards Gomorrah
Posts tagged Midterm
November Elections Loom Large
Apr 28th
It’s only a few months until November and it’s not likely that any kind of economic rebound is going to save the Democrats in the Fall. The American public’s view of ObamaCare hasn’t gotten better (worse, if anything) and the Democrats do not have anything popular to offer. In fact, the two major pieces of their agenda, climate change and immigration, are political kryptonite. Some political observers are predicting an election tsunami:
That’s the projection of Republican new media maven Patrick Ruffini. Lest you write off his projection that a 70-seat Republican gain (which would leave Republicans with a 248-187 majority, larger than any they have won since 1928) keep in mind that Ruffini was one of the very first to predict that Marco Rubio could become the leader in the Florida Senate race and that Scott Brown had a very real chance to win in Massachusetts. Here I should add the usual caveats about how opinion can change and the balance of enthusiasm could change even faster. But the Democrats’ current tactic of prioritizing legislation to weaken Republicans’ standings (among all voters on financial regulation, among Hispanics on immigration, among young voters on cap-and-trade and the environment) doesn’t really address their current problem, which is that the Democrats’ standing among voters is at a record low and that they’re getting pasted in polls despite the fact that the Republicans’ standing among voters is not particularly high.
The question is what happens if this takes place? The Republicans don’t really have strong voice right now and I’m not sure what their prepared to offer if they’re ushered back into power. I know what the conservative/libertarian ideas are, but what does the GOP have to offer? Supposedly the GOP is small government, but what are they going to do?
Obama would have to meet in the middle to accomplish anything, but what would that mean? If the GOP wants to cash in on the current electoral landscape they need to come up with some populist ideas. Otherwise the White House is going to have a Saul Alinsky field day picking on various leaders in Congress. President Obama isn’t prepared for an ideological debate about fiscal issues.
Reconciliation or Suicide?
Feb 19th
The President is barely one year into his four-year term, so predicting what will happen three years from now is rather pointless. The electoral landscape can change a lot in six months. The U.S. economy is far too large and the productivity of the American worker will eventually push growth. As I’ve stated before my issues with the White House are the long-term implications of the President’s economic strategy.
However, economy aside, if the White House really pushes health care through Congress in a privileged budget reconciliation bill it’s political suicide.
The legislation the White House will post on its website is expected to reflect common ground negotiated over the past several weeks by House and Senate Democratic leaders.
Those agreements are likely to be combined as a privileged budget reconciliation bill, which only needs a simple 51-vote majority to pass the 100-member Senate instead of the 60-vote supermajority that has become routine in the Senate and gives Republicans power to block the healthcare bill.
If this actually happens not only will the Democrats lose the Congress, but Obama’s presidency would be crippled. Even if the economy recovers Americans are concerned about the long-term fiscal situation. Even under the most rosy economic scenario there’s no solution to the nation’s fiscal problems. By any estimate the U.S. cannot afford Obama’s health care plan.
In the end I just don’t think the Democrats can muster the votes to pass this idea. What would they accomplish? Americans are already outraged by this process. Passing the bill through reconciliation would keep up the anti-incumbent sentiment through 2012. Obama doesn’t want his reelection campaign to be about repealing his key accomplishment.
