Posts tagged Polls

How dire is the political landscape for Democrats? Well, now they’re turning their ire toward Rasmussen Reports. Rasmussen, which polls likely voters, typically runs about five points different than mainstream news polls. It should also be noted that Rasmussen is the most accurate of all the polls in predicting outcomes. Rasmussen was one of the few pollsters that accurately predicted the last election and the generic voter turnout as well.
During the last election Rasmussen didn’t show the the wild swings that Zogby and other showed in the last days. At the time some Republicans complained about Rasmussen. This is the textbook example of kill the messenger.

“He polls less favorably for Democrats, and that’s why he’s become a lightning rod,” said Charles Franklin, a University of Wisconsin political scientist who studies polling. “It’s clear that his results are typically more Republican than the other person’s results.”
On Saturday, Dec. 26, for example, Rasmussen’s daily tracking had Obama’s approval at 44 percent, with a disapproval figure of 56 percent. A Real Clear Politics compilation of other pollsters, meanwhile, showed Obama with an average approval figure of 49.5 percent and disapproval of 45.1 percent.

In the 2004 election the Real Clear Politics compilation of other pollsters showed Bush’s approval rating at 49%. On election day Rasmussen had Bush’s approval rating at the correct number of 52%. What many on the left fail to see is that most mainstream polling agencies almost always poll kindly for Democrats. I don’t think that anything sinister is going on; it’s just poor polling. Here’s an example from CNN in April 2004.

The survey, conducted Friday through Sunday, found that among all adults — not just likely voters — only 46 percent approved of Bush’s performance in office — the lowest rating of his presidency in this poll. [emphasis added]

Polls that measure a “survey of adults” are almost always 3-5 points biased toward Democrats. I doubt many Democrats were concerned by CNN’s headline: “Bush Approval Hits New Low in Poll.” Basically the only crime Rasmussen is committing is that he’s accurate and he polls every day. If you don’t like the message, kill the messenger.