The Daily Plunge » Rasmussen Reports

democrats upset with accurate polls

Henshaw — Sun, 03 Jan 2010 21:38:21 +0000

How dire is the political landscape for Democrats? Well, now they’re turning their ire toward Rasmussen Reports. Rasmussen, which polls likely voters, typically runs about five points different than mainstream news polls. It should also be noted that Rasmussen is the most accurate of all the polls in predicting outcomes. Rasmussen was one of the few pollsters that accurately predicted the last election and the generic voter turnout as well.
During the last election Rasmussen didn’t show the the wild swings that Zogby and other showed in the last days. At the time some Republicans complained about Rasmussen. This is the textbook example of kill the messenger.

“He polls less favorably for Democrats, and that’s why he’s become a lightning rod,” said Charles Franklin, a University of Wisconsin political scientist who studies polling. “It’s clear that his results are typically more Republican than the other person’s results.”
On Saturday, Dec. 26, for example, Rasmussen’s daily tracking had Obama’s approval at 44 percent, with a disapproval figure of 56 percent. A Real Clear Politics compilation of other pollsters, meanwhile, showed Obama with an average approval figure of 49.5 percent and disapproval of 45.1 percent.

In the 2004 election the Real Clear Politics compilation of other pollsters showed Bush’s approval rating at 49%. On election day Rasmussen had Bush’s approval rating at the correct number of 52%. What many on the left fail to see is that most mainstream polling agencies almost always poll kindly for Democrats. I don’t think that anything sinister is going on; it’s just poor polling. Here’s an example from CNN in April 2004.

The survey, conducted Friday through Sunday, found that among all adults — not just likely voters — only 46 percent approved of Bush’s performance in office — the lowest rating of his presidency in this poll. [emphasis added]

Polls that measure a “survey of adults” are almost always 3-5 points biased toward Democrats. I doubt many Democrats were concerned by CNN’s headline: “Bush Approval Hits New Low in Poll.” Basically the only crime Rasmussen is committing is that he’s accurate and he polls every day. If you don’t like the message, kill the messenger.

2012 preview?

Henshaw — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 20:39:33 +0000

This is an insane poll. Rasmussen who has consistently been the most reliable poll for presidential politics has 2012 Romney vs. Obama poll out today which shows the two tied.

If the 2012 presidential election were held today, President Obama and possible Republican nominee Mitt Romney would be all tied up at 45% each, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey.
The president, seeking a second four-year term, beats another potential GOP rival, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, by six points – 48% to 42%

This should dispell any idea about Obama’s popularity. Pop culture is lagging behind; the president simply isn’t that popular among likely voters. I’m not sure what’s more shocking; the fact that he’s tied with Romney or only six points ahead of Palin. 42% of likely voters would vote for Palin today over Obama.

obama’s approval sinking

Henshaw — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 06:36:36 +0000

I have often asserted that to be successful in presidential politics it matters less what the president is doing in the White House than what’s going on in the economy. It’s nearly impossible for a president to successfully run for reelection if the economy is in the tank. This explains Obama’s sinking approval ratings. Rasmussen has Obama’s approval rating at 52%. Republicans are leading the generic ballot. In other words, if an election was held today Obama would probably win, but the Democrats would lose tons of seats in Congress. The generic ballot suggests that it’s not out of the realm of possibility for the Republicans to take control of the House in the mid-term elections.
Obviously there’s a lot of time before any kind of election and everything can change. Obama has barely been in office for six months so projections about his future are not certain; however, the idea that he’s untouchable should slowly start fading. The president’s future is tied with the economy. If things don’t start turning before the mid-terms his party will take a beating at the polls. Expect the press to blame Christians and angry white males. The economy is the real culprit.

obama’s steady decline

Henshaw — Sun, 08 Mar 2009 19:52:36 +0000

While it might not be reported in the mainstream press Obama’s popularity has been steadily declining since his inauguration. Obama’s approval rating is now at 56% according to Rasmussen. The White House should be well aware of that fact and one would expect Obama’s tone to change over the next few weeks. Or perhaps the president is truly out of touch and is drunk on his own change. This sometimes happens to new presidents, but if he doesn’t change his tune quick there is going to be a major push back from the American people. The investor class is panicked because of Obama’s spending agenda and unless the president tones town the anti-Wall-Street rhetoric the stock market isn’t going to come back any time soon.

more bad polls from cbs/new york times

Henshaw — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 00:54:53 +0000

I had hoped that the New York Times would quit writing stories based on their polls after their dismal record during the election. So count me unimpressed when a CBS/NYT poll comes out and says Ailing G.O.P. Risks Losing a Generation. This is story built on a liberal narrative. What is the truth? Well, thankfully there is a reliable poll that tracks the Generic Congressional Ballot. This poll is worth watching over the next two years as the nation approaches the mid-term elections.
Rasmussen’s track record the past four years is amazing. On election day the Democrats enjoyed a six point lead 47-41. According to the last poll by Rasmussen it’s only four points 41-37. On the 15th of February it was only a two point lead. The New York Times headline is misleading. The real news is that voters have moved Republican since the election. Meanwhile Obama’s approval rating sits at 58%. I can guarantee what the headline would be if a Republican’s approval rating dropped ten points in one month… “President Approval Drops Sharply.” I won’t hold my breath.