The President is barely one year into his four-year term, so predicting what will happen three years from now is rather pointless. The electoral landscape can change a lot in six months. The U.S. economy is far too large and the productivity of the American worker will eventually push growth. As I’ve stated before my issues with the White House are the long-term implications of the President’s economic strategy.
However, economy aside, if the White House really pushes health care through Congress in a privileged budget reconciliation bill it’s political suicide.
The legislation the White House will post on its website is expected to reflect common ground negotiated over the past several weeks by House and Senate Democratic leaders.
Those agreements are likely to be combined as a privileged budget reconciliation bill, which only needs a simple 51-vote majority to pass the 100-member Senate instead of the 60-vote supermajority that has become routine in the Senate and gives Republicans power to block the healthcare bill.
If this actually happens not only will the Democrats lose the Congress, but Obama’s presidency would be crippled. Even if the economy recovers Americans are concerned about the long-term fiscal situation. Even under the most rosy economic scenario there’s no solution to the nation’s fiscal problems. By any estimate the U.S. cannot afford Obama’s health care plan.
In the end I just don’t think the Democrats can muster the votes to pass this idea. What would they accomplish? Americans are already outraged by this process. Passing the bill through reconciliation would keep up the anti-incumbent sentiment through 2012. Obama doesn’t want his reelection campaign to be about repealing his key accomplishment.
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