The most obvious change in last night’s debate was the audience. There was no cheering or jeering. I prefer the hushed tones instead of the near gladiator style debates that were held in South Carolina. These are supposed to be debates and not an angry mob scene. Newt Gingrich is threatening to pull out of the remaining debates if the crowd continues to be silenced. It’s understandable that Gingrich prefers the red meat style debate audiences since he’s basically carved a path to the nomination by seizing the heart of the mob.

In 2008, I thought that the Democrats brainless adulation of Barack Obama could never be topped, but the rise of Newt Gingrich is at least a close 2nd. Americans are increasingly skipping the details and settling for the narrative. You see this in almost every avenue of American culture. We are prisoners of the moment.

This system of selecting the president is not what the founding fathers intended. To be a serious candidate for president you have to have millions of dollars in infrastructure. The other issue is exposure. For candidates entering the race late the media scrutiny is intense (unless you’re a Democrat). In 2008, then Senator Obama seemingly came out of nowhere, but he had been receiving glowing press since 2004.  There was no question he was going to run for president in 2008. Part of the reason why people like Romney and Gingrich seem to have escaped all their political baggage is because it’s old news. Romney has RomneyCare, but what else is there to write about it? Voters have short memories.

For those who were getting to know Rick Perry in the fall of 2011 there was a lot to digest. Perry’s ideas about immigration hurt his chances, but that was nothing compared to what happened next. For those unfamiliar with Perry the first impression of the governor of Texas was his weak debate performances. Then November 9th happened.  There’s absolutely no way to recover from that kind of brain freeze especially if you’re trying to introduce yourself to the American public.

So here we are two days from the South Carolina primary and there’s no true conservative in the race. It’s basically Romney versus Gingrich. Santorum is still in the race, but he’s almost irrelevant. If Gingrich pulls out a win in South Carolina it’s unlikely he’ll win in Florida, Nevada and Maine. The race is over and Mitt Romney is the nominee.

I had a long boring post about where it went wrong for Huntsman, but like his candidacy it’s long gone. WordPress ate it and my motivation to write it again. Next time Huntsman should run an honest campaign and quit insulting potential voters. It’s too bad. Huntsman was a pretty good conservative in Utah. He just didn’t seem to want to admit it.

This guy did stuff and no one cares.

Last night was the last debate before the Iowa caucus on January 3rd. Once the voting is over in Iowa we’ll likely see the end of Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann. Bachmann has been a fire thrower for the past two months, but she’s not gaining any ground. Santorum is a manikin that talks about itself in the third person. Rick Perry is getting better in these debates, but I’m not sure what that means. Ron Paul is really outside the mainstream on Iran and foreign policy in general.

Most of the analysis will be about Mitt Romney vs. Newt Gingrich, but I don’t have the motivation to cover what happened tonight. There have been 13 debates in 2011 and there’s nothing new coming out of these exercies. Mitt Ronmey looks like a political opportunist even if he’s not and Gingrich is all over the place. In the end, Romney is the safe choice. That should tell you all you need to know about how bad things are for the GOP. Oh yeah, Jon Huntsman was there.

The coverage of the story had dwarfed the entire campaign and covered up some of Cain’s incoherent response on topics like abortion, Medicare, and foreign policy. Herman Cain’s rise is the power of the anti-Romney sentiment in the party. I don’t think Cain is a credible candidate and unless Perry rises from the dead Romney is basically just coasting to the nomination (notice I left Newt Gingrich out). There’s still a long way to go, but that’s the wrap on November 9, 2011.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uE5xZKszXMQ

Mitt Romney: Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is the perfect candidate. The problem he wasn’t the perfect candidate ten years ago. A vote for Romney is an endorsement that the man ten years ago was a fraud and the man that exists today is genuinely honest. Awesome. Where do I sign up?

Newt Gingrich: There’s not a better idea man in the United States than Speaker Gingrich. However, he doesn’t have the temperament for the office. Too many times in the past Gingrich has tried to appease others or ended up sticking his foot in his mouth about stuff that doesn’t matter (see: riding in the back of Air Force One). The only reason his candidacy is still alive is because no viable anti-Romney candidate has sealed the deal.

Herman Cain: Cain has really benefited from Perry’s problems. In a lot of ways Cain is getting a free pass because he debates better than Perry. What else can explain why Cain has endorsed TARP, Alan Greenspan, and made odd comments about abortion? Cain’s statements about abortion would sink most GOP candidates in most elections. If we have learned anything it’s that this isn’t an ordinary election. Cain doesn’t really have a campaign. At this stage, Cain’s ability to debate should keep his campaign afloat. Cain represents Romney’s best case scenario. Cain isn’t strong enough to defeat Romney, but he’s strong enough to keep Perry down.

Rick Perry: On paper there’s not a better candidate than Perry. Perry has been abysmal in the debates and he’s shown a propensity not to stay on message. This week he launches a flat tax plan and on the same day makes some idiotic comment about President Obama’s birth certificate. Why even bring it up? I’m not sure Perry can be resurrected. Immigration is the third rail of GOP politics. Perry’s position on immigration isn’t alarming to me, but this wedge issue has been effectively used by Romney. Simply avoiding the debates isn’t going to cure Perry’s problems.

There’s still a lot of time before the voting begins, but the merry-g0-round anti-Romney stuff has probably come to an end. Conservatives will likely never rally around one candidate, so that means Romney is probably going to win by default. I’m not sure I can bring myself to vote for anyone.

Where does that leave the race? There are two choices. It’s Romney versus Anti-Romney. Over the past month Romney’s support has remained the same and the Anti-Romney canidate has been represented by Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, and now Herman Cain. Perry has crashed since the last debate because he’s too liberal on immigration and the HPV vaccine. Can Mitt Romney become the nominee just because there’s no viable alternative? That appears to be Romney’s path to the nomination.

The next two weeks will be big for Rick Perry as conservatives realize that the Mitt Romney nomination is inevitable if conservatives do not rally around a candidate. Michele Bachmann has already faded out. I’m not sure Herman Cain has staying power.

Florida’s move would directly violate RNC rules that forbid any state other than the first four “carve-out” states — Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina — from holding a primary before March 6.

States that ignore the RNC rules are subject to losing half of their delegates — party representatives who ultimately choose the nominee — to the Republican National Convention in Tampa, Florida, next August.

Ask Hillary Clinton how important the state of Florida is to getting the nomination. Clinton won the state in 2008, but the DNC didn’t recognize the delegates because the state moved up its primary. One solution would be to hold a national primary. The only problem with that idea is that the benefit of a staggered primary system is the process. It’s a good way to determine which candidate has the stamina and organization for the general election. I wouldn’t mind a four-stage process where you break the primaries into four elections. It would allow the candidates the ability to visit the states in play and it would end this ridiculous Iowa/New Hampshire courtship.

Creating a system like I’ve described isn’t likely because each state controls when their primary is set. The RNC/DNC should just get out of the way. If Florida wants to move up its primary so bit it. The state of Florida is a much more pivotal state in the general election than Iowa or New Hampshire. In a four-stage primary, both small and large states would be represented in each primary election. It’s so logical that there’s no way either party will accept it. The fact that the DNC and RNC both act like the BCS tells you a lot about how they govern after the general election… like asses and pachyderms.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BhDhDRvHaGs